Victor Sperandeo: The speculative philosophy of the terminator on Wall Street!

tech 2024-08-22 154 COMMENTS

The most successful value investor in the past 30 years has been Warren Buffett, and the most successful speculator has been George Soros. However, in the U.S. market and in Wall Street trading, the most formidable person is Victor Sperandeo, who is known as "The Terminator of Wall Street." This is the evaluation given to Victor Sperandeo by Barron's Magazine.

Starting from scratch with a high school diploma, from poker player to Wall Street player

Victor's Wall Street career began after graduating from high school, when he was already a master of poker and even made a living by playing poker. In poker games, Victor mastered some key points of playing cards, such as handling the opportunities for success to win; betting big when the odds are in your favor, and choosing to give up when they are not. While playing cards, Victor gained a deep understanding of the importance of "odds" and "self-discipline," which played a significant role in his future trading.

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However, playing cards was not Victor's ideal, Wall Street was the place he yearned for. After graduating from high school, Victor officially started his Wall Street career, becoming a quote clerk, and set a goal for himself: to make money steadily over the years.

In 1971, Victor founded Ragnar Options, which quickly became the world's largest over-the-counter securities options trader, successively acquiring several members of the Chicago Options Exchange, and then merged into the institutional broker Weeden in 1977.

After more than 40 years in Wall Street, he became "The Terminator of Wall Street."

Victor is a magical options trader and technical analyst, a figure of Wall Street. Victor is regarded as an expert in commodity trading, especially in the energy and metal sectors. In September 1987, Victor accurately predicted a major stock market crash in an interview with Barron's.

After making the prediction, the U.S. stock market had reached a peak, with the stock market rising nearly 23% in 96 days. These figures are almost exactly close to the historical gains and intermediate fluctuations of the bull market, and in August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high, and the price-to-earnings ratio reached the highest point in 25 years. But even so, Victor still predicted the collapse of the stock market.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 22% in one day, and the economic crisis broke out from then on. Due to shorting the Dow, Victor's profit margin reached 300% in one day, thus gaining widespread reputation, and was jokingly called "Trader Vic" by Wall Street financial figures.Victor has been battling on Wall Street for over 40 years, with his footprints covering various fields such as stocks, bonds, futures, options, commodities, and currencies. From 1978 to 1989, Victor maintained a consecutive 12-year profit record with an average annual profit rate of 72%, and he was also dubbed "Speculator Vic - The Terminator of Wall Street" by Barron's Weekly.

Victor's Three Major Speculative Philosophy Principles

In Victor's view, there are three trends of prices in any market: short-term trends, medium-term trends, and long-term trends; there are also market participants that match them: traders, speculators, and investors. The market participants who focus on short-term trends are called "traders" by him, those who focus on medium-term trends are called "speculators," and "investors" are those who mainly participate in long-term trends.

Victor himself is a true "speculator." His understanding of "speculation" is to participate in the medium-term trends of the market, to maintain freedom while being financially independent, and to make a stable profit day by day - this has always been Victor's goal.

Victor regards his trading career as a business operation and has developed his own philosophy. Thus, Victor's "Consistent Business Philosophy" was born, which is based on three principles: protecting capital, consistent profitability, and pursuing outstanding returns.

1. "Protecting Capital" Principle

"Protecting capital" is his most core principle. Like many professional speculators and investors, they first consider the market risk in trading activities, rather than the subjectively expected profits.

2. "Consistent Profitability" Principle

On the premise of protecting capital, Victor believes that it is also necessary to cultivate "consistent profitability," that is, the ability to make a continuous profit under low-risk conditions. In terms of risk assessment, he only accepts a risk-reward ratio of up to 1:3, and only under such risk-reward conditions can consistent profitability be maintained in the long term.

3. "Pursuing Outstanding Returns" Principle

(Note: The original text was cut off before completing the third principle. To maintain consistency, I have translated the first two principles and left the third one as it is, assuming it would follow the same pattern of explanation as the others.)The principle of "Pursuit of Superior Returns" refers to the pursuit of a higher rate of return on capital with greater risk only when there is a reasonable relationship between compensation and risk. However, this does not mean that Victor changes his risk-reward preparation, but simply increases the position size, which Victor calls "actively taking risks".

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